EMQQ Global Performance Overview
- The EMQQ Index fell 1.3% in July. YTD, it is up 18.2%.
- The FMQQ Index declined 5.7% for the month. YTD, it is up 12.7%.
- The INQQ Index fell 4.1% in July. YTD, it is down -1.4%.
The leading positive contributors to performance for the EMQQ Index in July came from India’s Eternal, the country’s food delivery and quick commerce leader, and Tencent, the social media and gaming giant from China. The former rose 14.1% after releasing a strong set of quarterly results, in which revenues climbed 70%. More on that below. Meanwhile, Tencent rose 9.3% on the back of news that AI chip sales from the US to China will resume after a previous pause.
The two largest detractors for the month were Mercadolibre and Nubank, driven by uncertainty around US tariffs imposed on Brazil. Nonetheless, the growth prospects for both remain strongly intact. In early August, MercadoLibre reported results showing sales surged 34%, driven by a 25% increase in e-commerce customers and an even higher 30% increase in fintech users. More on that below.
Sources: Bloomberg, Company financials
Emerging Markets Tech News to Know
At a Glance:
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China’s GDP Growth Shows Resiliency While IMF Raises Outlook
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NVIDIA Resuming Chip Sales to China Comes with Several Positives
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China’s Baidu to Bring Robotaxis to the World
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Thoughts on Tariffs & India
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India’s Eternal Sees Revenue Surge
- McKinsey Bullish on India’s E-Commerce Market
- India’s UPI Surpasses Visa in Key Milestone
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Mercadolibre’s Growth Continues Unabated
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Chart of the Month
China’s GDP Growth Shows Resiliency While IMF Raises Outlook
China’s economy proved remarkably resilient in the second quarter of 2025, growing by 5.2 % YoY, slightly above market forecasts and following a strong 5.4 % performance in Q1. This momentum was fueled by robust export growth, driven by local firms branching out to new markets beyond the U.S. Industrial output surged, while high-tech manufacturing and vehicle production led the way. After the GDP, the IMF also revised its China growth target upwards for the year. Overall, the data signals a strong, adaptive economy poised to meet China’s 2025 growth target.
NVIDIA Resuming Chip Sales to China Comes with Several Positives
News that Nvidia will resume sales of its H20 AI chips to China should provide another boost to China’s tech and AI sector, which has seen a sharp revival. China’s fastest-growing AI firms—like Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu—are eager to procure imports to accelerate model training, improve inference performance, and bolster growth across cloud, e-commerce, and autonomous systems. Beyond business, this resumption reflects a softening of U.S.–China tech tensions, tied to broader trade talks (including rare-earth exports from China) and export policy negotiations. Permitting these sales signals a strategic shift toward reengagement, less isolationism, and a chance for collaboration within regulated boundaries.
China’s Baidu to Bring Robotaxis to the World
Baidu’s autonomous vehicle unit, Apollo Go, has partnered with Uber to deploy robotaxi fleets in Asia and the Middle East, starting in late 2025, and with Lyft to launch driverless vehicles across Germany and the U.K. in 2026. Apollo Go already operates over 1,000 robotaxis across 15 cities, completing more than 11 million rides, making it one of the world’s largest robotaxi operators, alongside Alphabet’s Waymo. These partnerships leverage Uber’s global platform and Lyft’s European expansion, thereby accelerating Baidu’s international footprint with minimal capital investment. For Baidu, the alliances validate its tech leadership, deepen global penetration, and position Apollo Go as a scalable, income-generating autonomous mobility pioneer, boosting its brand, credibility, and shareholder optimism.
Thoughts on Tariffs & India
President Trump has announced a 25% tariff on Indian exports to the U.S., effective August 1st. While this move is broadly in line with the earlier 26% tariff imposed on ‘Liberation Day’, other nations have since managed to negotiate more favorable terms—Vietnam, for example, saw its tariff reduced from 46% to 20%. India, however, has not yet secured any such adjustment. While the higher tariffs do increase uncertainty in the short term, India’s exports to the USA represent less than 3% of India's GDP, substantially lower than those of other emerging markets, such as Vietnam or Mexico. India’s projected 6-7% GDP growth over the next several years is driven by domestic factors such as demographics, urbanization, and digitalization (not exports). The Indian companies across the EMQQ, FMQQ, and INQQ Indexes have minimal exposure to the US or US exports.
India’s Eternal Sees Revenue Surge
Eternal (formerly Zomato), one of India's leading e-commerce companies, reported a 70% increase in revenue from the same period a year earlier in its most recent earnings report. The standout was its “quick commerce” arm, Blinkit, whose net order value jumped 127% YoY to $1.1 billion, for the first time surpassing the company’s legacy food delivery business. Quick commerce is a recent phenomenon in Indian e-commerce, in which virtually anything can be delivered to consumers in 10 minutes or less. Blinkit added 243 new dark stores in the quarter to help Eternal accelerate its quick commerce growth in the years ahead.
McKinsey Bullish on India’s E-Commerce Market
In a recent report titled “India’s Future Arenas: Engines of Growth and Dynamism,” McKinsey identifies 18 high-growth sectors across India’s economy projected to generate $1.7–2 trillion in revenues by 2030, up from $690 billion in 2023, and contribute nearly 30% of India’s incremental GDP by 2040. One of the most promising arenas is e-commerce, poised to grow from just 7–9% of total retail sales now to 15–17% by 2030, with only ~20–25% of India’s 850 million internet users currently shopping online. The sector should benefit from faster data, rising smartphone adoption, expansion into Tier II cities, and innovations like quick commerce and social commerce. According to the report, the sector could grow by a factor of five over the next several years.
India’s UPI Surpasses Visa in Key Milestone
Unified Payments Interface (UPI) is India’s instant real-time payment system developed by the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) and is one of the pillars of India’s digital economy and growth. It allows users to send and receive money 24/7 directly between bank accounts using a mobile app, eliminating the need for card details or bank codes. UPI recently surpassed Visa in daily transaction volume, a landmark that highlights its rapid adoption and the digitization of India’s financial ecosystem. This milestone showcases the scalability and inclusivity of India’s homegrown fintech infrastructure, providing low-cost, interoperable solutions to both urban and rural users. It positions India as a global leader in digital payments, opening up opportunities for fintech innovation across lending, insurance, and commerce. The UPI framework is becoming a blueprint for other countries, underscoring India’s fintech leadership.
Mercadolibre’s Growth Continues Unabated
Latin America’s MercadoLibre delivered another strong quarter, with 34% YoY revenue growth to $6.8 billion, adding to continued momentum. Gross merchandise volume rose 37%, and the number of items sold increased 31%, the fastest growth since mid-2021. Meanwhile, the fintech arm continued to shine—Mercado Pago’s credit portfolio expanded 91% to $9.3 billion, with default rates improving. Despite margin pressure from expanded free shipping initiatives in Brazil, which slightly compressed EBIT margins, EBIT still reached a record $825 million. These performance gains reflect MercadoLibre’s powerful combination of demand growth and scalable network infrastructure, positioning it well for long-term profitable expansion.
Chart of the Month
India’s global GDP share is projected to rise sharply in the coming years, driven by sustained 6–7 % growth, demographic advantage, digital transformation, and large-scale reforms.
Source: Econofact